As I sit down to analyze Collingwood Football Club's prospects for the 2024 season, I can't help but draw parallels to the fighting spirit we see in combat sports. Just last week, I was watching footage of LITO "Thunder Kid" Adiwang preparing for his upcoming fight against Keito Yamakita - here's a fighter riding three straight wins, yet fully aware he needs to maintain razor-sharp focus to extend his winning streak. That same mentality perfectly encapsulates what Collingwood needs heading into 2024. Having followed the Magpies for over fifteen years and written extensively about AFL tactics, I've developed a keen sense for what separates good teams from great ones. This season presents both tremendous opportunities and significant challenges for our beloved black and white army.
The 2023 premiership hangover is real, and I've seen it affect previous Collingwood squads. Statistics show that only about 32% of AFL premiers successfully defend their title the following season. What gives me confidence about our 2024 campaign is the core group's remarkable consistency. Nick Daicos, at just 21 years old, continues to defy expectations - his average of 31.2 disposals per game last season places him among the elite midfielders I've studied throughout AFL history. But what truly impresses me isn't just the numbers; it's his football IQ that reminds me of watching a young Nathan Buckley. I genuinely believe we're witnessing the development of a once-in-a-generation player who could potentially challenge for the Brownlow within the next two seasons.
Our forward line presents what I consider the most intriguing storyline of the 2024 season. Brody Mihocek's reliability as a marking target gives us structure, but I'm particularly excited about the potential emergence of Ash Johnson as a genuine game-breaker. Having spoken with several opposition defenders last offseason, they consistently mentioned how difficult Johnson is to match up against due to his unconventional leading patterns. If he can increase his goal output from 1.8 to 2.3 per game, which I believe is achievable given his natural talent, our scoring potential becomes significantly more dangerous. The comparison to Adiwang's situation isn't lost on me here - like the "Thunder Kid" who must adapt to maintain his winning ways, Johnson needs to evolve from promising talent to consistent performer.
Where I differ from some analysts is my concern about our key defensive depth. Darcy Moore remains arguably the competition's premier intercept marker, with his 9.2 intercept possessions per game last season leading the league among key defenders. However, behind him, we're relying heavily on Charlie Dean, who hasn't played a senior game due to injury, and Billy Frampton, who I've always viewed as more of a role player than a week-to-week starter. If Moore were to miss significant time - and we should remember he played 24 of 25 games last season - I'm not entirely convinced we have the personnel to maintain our defensive structure against top-tier forward lines like Brisbane or Melbourne.
The midfield battle will ultimately determine our fate, and here's where my optimism truly shines through. Jordan De Goey's transformation from mercurial talent to consistent powerhouse has been remarkable to witness firsthand. His clearance work in big moments last season reminded me of Dusty Martin in his prime, and I'd argue he's now a top-5 player in the competition when fully focused. Combine that with Scott Pendlebury's ageless wonder - the man is 36 but moves like he's 28 - and the emerging partnership between Tom Mitchell and Jack Crisp, and we possess what I consider the most complete midfield unit in the AFL. The depth chart shows we have at least seven players capable of rotating through the center, which gives us tactical flexibility that most clubs would envy.
Special teams and coaching represent another area where I believe we hold a distinct advantage. Craig McRae's game-day adjustments last season were nothing short of brilliant - I tracked at least six games where his tactical shifts directly influenced the outcome. His emphasis on pressure and ball movement has created an identity that players clearly embrace. The "Collingwood way" under McRae reminds me of successful systems I've observed in European football clubs, where philosophy transcends individual talent. This coaching stability, combined with what I estimate to be approximately 87% player retention from last year's premiership squad, provides continuity that should help navigate the inevitable challenges of a long season.
Looking at the fixture, I've identified what could be a crucial stretch between rounds 7 and 14, where we face five 2023 finalists in eight weeks. This period will test our depth and resilience more than any other, and I'll be watching how our younger players like Reef McInnes and Finlay Macrae handle the increased responsibility. Having attended training sessions during the preseason, I noticed McInnes in particular has added significant muscle mass and appears much more confident in contested situations. If he can translate that development into regular senior contributions, it would provide exactly the kind of depth boost that separates contenders from pretenders.
As we approach the season opener, my prediction is that Collingwood will finish between 2nd and 4th on the ladder with a record of 17-6, securing a double chance in the finals. The comparison to Adiwang's situation continues to resonate with me - like a fighter on a winning streak, we must approach each game with the understanding that past success guarantees nothing. The competition has studied our methods and will be better prepared. Still, with our core leadership group, emerging young stars, and what I consider the best game-day coach in the business, I'm confident we have the right mix to mount a serious premiership defense. The 2024 season won't be easy, but watching this group overcome challenges has become one of my greatest pleasures as a football analyst and lifelong Magpies supporter.
