Having watched countless PBA matchups over the years, I’ve always been fascinated by how certain games reveal more than just scores—they expose team character, coaching philosophies, and turning points in a season. This PBA face-off between Rain or Shine and Phoenix is no exception. While analyzing this game, I couldn’t help but recall Coach Jeff Napa’s recent remarks about his National University squad. He said something that stuck with me: “I’ve always known how capable my team is.” That mindset—belief in your roster’s inherent strength—is exactly what separates contenders from pretenders in high-stakes games like this one. Rain or Shine and Phoenix both entered this clash with plenty to prove, but only one would walk away with momentum and, more importantly, a clearer identity.
Let’s start with Rain or Shine. Their offense has been, to put it mildly, inconsistent. They’ve averaged around 94 points per game this conference, but their shooting from beyond the arc has hovered at just 31%—a number that simply won’t cut it against Phoenix’s aggressive perimeter defense. I’ve always believed Rain or Shine thrives when they establish an inside presence early. Beau Belga, in my view, is criminally underrated. When he’s engaged and getting touches in the paint, their whole half-court set opens up. But here’s the thing: they’ve been too reliant on jump shots in crucial moments. Against Phoenix, that’s a recipe for disaster. Phoenix forces an average of 16 turnovers per game, and they love to run in transition. If Rain or Shine settles for contested threes, they’ll be playing right into Phoenix’s hands.
Now, Phoenix—oh, how I admire their defensive discipline. Coach Topex Robinson has them playing with a kind of controlled chaos. They switch everything on the perimeter, and their bigs are surprisingly mobile. Matthew Wright, as we all know, is the engine. He’s averaging close to 20 points and 6 assists, but what impresses me most is his decision-making in the pick-and-roll. He rarely forces bad shots. Still, Phoenix has one glaring weakness: rebounding. They give up nearly 14 offensive rebounds per game. Against a Rain or Shine team that crashes the boards hard—especially with players like Norbert Torres—that could be the difference-maker. I’ve noticed that Phoenix tends to lose focus in the third quarter; they’ve been outscored by an average of 5 points in that period over their last five games. If Rain or Shine can exploit that lull, they might just swing the momentum.
When I think about coaching strategies, Jeff Napa’s confidence in his NU team comes to mind again. It’s not just about talent—it’s about trust. Rain or Shine’s coach, Chris Gavina, has shown flashes of that trust, particularly with young guys like Anton Asistio. But he needs to commit to a tighter rotation. In their last outing, they used 12 players in the first half alone. That kind of experimentation might work in the eliminations, but not in a playoff-caliber game. Phoenix, on the other hand, sticks to a 9-man rotation, and it shows in their chemistry. Their ball movement is crisp—they average around 24 assists per game—and everyone knows their role. Personally, I’d love to see Rain or Shine mimic that approach. Simplify the game plan, lean on your veterans, and let the defense create easy baskets.
As for key matchups, keep an eye on the point guard battle. Javee Mocon has been stellar for Phoenix, but he’ll have his hands full with Rey Nambatac. Nambatac is one of those players who can explode for 30 points on any given night, but he’s also prone to turnovers when pressured. If Phoenix can trap him in high pick-and-roll situations, I suspect they’ll force at least 4–5 costly mistakes. On the flip side, Rain or Shine must contain Wright without overhelping. I’ve seen too many teams collapse on Wright, only to leave shooters like RJ Jazul wide open. Jazul is shooting 38% from three this conference—you can’t give him clean looks.
In terms of adjustments, I’d advise Rain or Shine to attack the basket early and often. Draw fouls. Phoenix’s key players tend to pick up cheap fouls when pressured in the post. If Belga or Torres can get Jason Perkins or Justin Chua into foul trouble, Phoenix’s interior defense crumbles. For Phoenix, it’s all about maintaining intensity for 48 minutes. They’ve had a habit of taking their foot off the gas, and in a close game, that could cost them. I remember one game where they blew a 12-point lead in the final four minutes because they stopped moving the ball. Discipline, above all, will decide this one.
So, where does that leave us? Honestly, I’m leaning slightly toward Phoenix in this matchup. Their backcourt versatility and defensive schemes give them a slight edge, provided they control the glass. But don’t count Rain or Shine out—if they play with the kind of self-belief that Jeff Napa talks about, they could easily pull off an upset. At the end of the day, games like these aren’t just about X’s and O’s. They’re about which team embraces their identity and executes under pressure. My prediction? Phoenix by 4, but I wouldn’t be surprised if Rain or Shine makes it a classic. Whatever happens, this is one showdown you won’t want to miss.
